What makes a good hypothesis and how can you test it?
The Case For Hypotheses
How do you decide where to invest in the short-term while acknowledging future uncertainty and the possible pivots you'll have to make? How can you clearly state your assumptions about where and how you will deliver value? How do you orient yourself around outcomes rather than output?
By using a consistent framing for how you approach problems, you will find that you can set out:
- the target market for your proposal
- the benefits you will deliver to this target market
- how you will deliver these benefits
- how you will know you have succeeded (i.e. what outcome will be your measure of success
By forming hypotheses, you can identify your riskiest assumptions. A consistent framework will help you identify how to test and refine your ideas without investing significant time and effort. This will help minimise the risk of failure and allow you to focus your efforts on where they can have most impact.
Forming a Hypothesis
Listening to customers about their needs and how our product meets them (or fails to do so) is essential. You should also check that your hypotheses are aligned with the wider organisation's goals and its evolving strategy.
A well-formed hypothesis should include:
- the potential solution being considered
- the target audience
- the benefits we believe will follow
- measurable criteria that demonstrate success or failure
Validating a hypothesis
You might validate our hypotheses through user interviews, market research, or testing such as A/B testing. You should be having regular strategy meetings and reviewing the evidence uncovered by research to inform further hypotheses and prioritisation decisions.